The Summer Corn Short
Corn short from May 28 close into late November — 20 of 25 winners, 9 of 10 in the last decade, +11.8% median P&L on the short side.
Planting is complete. Summer weather windows open. Corn enters its most reliable short window of the year: May 28 → Nov 26, a 6-month hold capturing the +11.8% median P&L on the pre-harvest price slide with a 20-of-25 hit rate and a 9-of-10 last decade.
This is the post-Memorial-Day anchor for the corn complex. Markets close Monday for the holiday. Enter at Thursday's close. The economic logic: by late May the planting picture is locked, weather forecasts dominate the price discovery, and the structural seasonal force — harvest pressure six months out — begins exerting downward weight on the strip. Multiple shorter-window variants run through summer (Jun 4, Jun 11, Jun 18 — all produce ~100-day shorts of comparable magnitude). The one systematic miss in the modern data is 2012's drought, which crushed yields and sent corn ripping +42% against the short.
Trade via short /ZC futures or inverse CORN ETF. This is a meaningful notional position — corn realized volatility runs 25-35% — so size accordingly. Watch USDA weekly crop-condition reports through summer; an unexpected drought or planting shortfall is the canonical reason this signal fails.
The week ahead
| Day | Notes | Trades active |
|---|---|---|
| MonMay 25 | NYSE closed · Memorial Day | |
| TueMay 26 | Post-holiday reopen. Light volume, summer trading begins. | |
| WedMay 27 | ||
| ThuMay 28 | The Summer Corn Short fires at the close. See above for the full setup. |
SHORTCORN+12%
Exit Nov 26, 2026
|
| FriMay 29 | Last trading day of May. | |
| SatMay 30 | — | |
| SunMay 31 | May closes. |
One signal fires Thursday. The three Late-May Launchpad entries from last week (NDX, 1kGrowth, SPX) continue holding through Feb 18, 2027.
Full history — 25 years (short P&L)
| Year | Return | Rank | Year | Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | +3.1% | 1 | 2008 | +44.1% |
| 2002 | −7.1% | 2 | 2004 | +38.1% |
| 2003 | +3.6% | 3 | 2013 | +28.3% |
| 2004 | +38.1% | 4 | 2005 | +22.6% |
| 2005 | +22.6% | 5 | 2011 | +21.7% |
| 2006 | −26.7% | 6 | 2014 | +21.7% |
| 2007 | +4.4% | 7 | 2016 | +18.7% |
| 2008 | +44.1% | 8 | 2018 | +17.3% |
| 2009 | +11.8% | 9 | 2019 | +15.5% |
| 2010 | −41.1% | 10 | 2024 | +14.4% |
| 2011 | +21.7% | 11 | 2023 | +13.9% |
| 2012 | −41.8% | 12 | 2017 | +13.7% |
| 2013 | +28.3% | 13 | 2009 | +11.8% |
| 2014 | +21.7% | 14 | 2022 | +9.7% |
| 2015 | +1.8% | 15 | 2025 | +7.5% |
| 2016 | +18.7% | 16 | 2007 | +4.4% |
| 2017 | +13.7% | 17 | 2021 | +4.0% |
| 2018 | +17.3% | 18 | 2003 | +3.6% |
| 2019 | +15.5% | 19 | 2001 | +3.1% |
| 2020 | −23.7% | 20 | 2015 | +1.8% |
| 2021 | +4.0% | 21 | 2002 | −7.1% |
| 2022 | +9.7% | 22 | 2020 | −23.7% |
| 2023 | +13.9% | 23 | 2006 | −26.7% |
| 2024 | +14.4% | 24 | 2010 | −41.1% |
| 2025 | +7.5% | 25 | 2012 | −41.8% |
Read: Left = chronological. Right = ranked. Bloomberg Corn sub-index, SHORT P&L, May 28 close through Nov 26. Data: last 25 years. The five misses: 2002, 2006, 2010, 2012 (drought), 2020.