The 9-Month NG Short
A 273-day natural gas short from June 25 through March 25 — 20 of 24 winners, 9 of 10 in the last decade, +22.5% median P&L. The single most powerful signal in the second half of the book.
NG short · Jun 25 → Mar 25, 2027
Natural gas is the most seasonal commodity traded. Its calendar is dictated by two simple flows: storage refills from April through October, then winter heating draws from November through March. The price typically softens through the refill season as inventory accumulates, then firms (or spikes) into withdrawal. The Jun 25 short captures the full bearish leg — late refill, the back end of injection season, the early withdrawal weeks when storage is still high — and exits the day after winter ends.
The pattern is unusually robust. 20 of 24 years profitable, with a median +22.5% on the short side and a mean of +20.4%. The four losing years each had identifiable single-event drivers: 2002 (post-Enron market dislocation), 2012 and 2013 (a two-year rebound off the historic 2011 collapse, where shorting at any point looked late), and 2021 (the energy-shortage setup that preceded Russia's Ukraine invasion the following February). Every one of those losers is identifiable in hindsight as a regime break, not a model failure.
The biggest winners cluster around supply or demand shocks: 2008 printed +72% (GFC demand collapse), 2022 +64% (European demand destruction), 2011 +58.5% (shale glut), 2023 +52.7% (warm winter + inventory overhang). Right-tail is large; left-tail in the last decade is small. 9 of the last 10 entries were profitable, the lone exception being 2021.
Trade vehicles matter for a 9-month hold. /NG futures give the cleanest exposure but carry roll cost across two contract cycles. UNG short is the cleanest retail equity expression; expense and contango drag both work in the short's favor here. KOLD (2x inverse) compounds well in a sustained downtrend but rebalances daily — choppy markets erode it. UNG puts face brutal theta over 9 months; skip them unless you size deeply ITM.
Full history — 24 years
Bloomberg NG sub-index, SHORT P&L, Jun 25 close → Mar 25 next year close.
| Year | Short P&L | Rank | Year | Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | +34.7% | 1 | 2008 | +72.0% |
| 2002 | −33.8% | 2 | 2022 | +64.5% |
| 2003 | +10.8% | 3 | 2011 | +58.5% |
| 2004 | +22.4% | 4 | 2023 | +52.7% |
| 2005 | +15.2% | 5 | 2015 | +50.9% |
| 2006 | +34.8% | 6 | 2014 | +44.8% |
| 2007 | +5.9% | 7 | 2009 | +41.4% |
| 2008 | +72.0% | 8 | 2019 | +38.0% |
| 2009 | +41.4% | 9 | 2006 | +34.8% |
| 2010 | +28.7% | 10 | 2001 | +34.7% |
| 2011 | +58.5% | 11 | 2010 | +28.7% |
| 2012 | −14.5% | 12 | 2017 | +22.7% |
| 2013 | −16.4% | 13 | 2004 | +22.4% |
| 2014 | +44.8% | 14 | 2005 | +15.2% |
| 2015 | +50.9% | 15 | 2003 | +10.8% |
| 2016 | +5.0% | 16 | 2007 | +5.9% |
| 2017 | +22.7% | 17 | 2016 | +5.0% |
| 2018 | +2.9% | 18 | 2018 | +2.9% |
| 2019 | +38.0% | 19 | 2024 | +1.8% |
| 2020 | +1.8% | 20 | 2020 | +1.8% |
| 2021 | −55.5% | 21 | 2012 | −14.5% |
| 2022 | +64.5% | 22 | 2013 | −16.4% |
| 2023 | +52.7% | 23 | 2002 | −33.8% |
| 2024 | +1.8% | 24 | 2021 | −55.5% |