The Independence Day Launch
SPX has gone up between July 2 and December 1 in every one of the last ten years. NDX joins for a longer hold. Two equity longs from the same entry close, captured by the same flow story.
- NDX, 1kGrowth, SPX longs (Late-May Launchpad, May 21) — holding through Feb 18, 2027
- CORN short (Summer Corn Short, May 28) — holding through Nov 26, 2026
- 1kGrowth long & CORN short (Jun 4 pair) — Dec 3 / Oct 4
- GOLD long (entered Jun 18) — holding through Jan 17, 2027
- NG short — entering Thursday, holding through Mar 25, 2027
SPX long · Jul 2 → Dec 1
NDX long · Jul 2 → Jan 31, 2027
The Independence Day Launch is two trades on one close — a 5-month SPX long and a 7-month NDX long, both entering Thursday July 2. They share a story: the long weekend wraps the first half of the year, mutual-fund and pension flows reset around the calendar mid-point, and equities have historically caught a sustained tailwind that runs through earnings season, into Q4, and (for the NDX leg) past year-end positioning into late January.
The headline number is the SPX record. Twenty out of twenty-five years profitable since 2001 is solid. The cleaner cut is the recent regime: ten out of ten in the last decade (2016–2025). Not one losing year. The smallest winner in that stretch was +1.2% (2018); the biggest was +16.2% (2020). The five historical losers — 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2011 — all clustered in pre-QE-era dislocations. Every full year since 2012 has been positive.
The NDX leg trades the same direction with a longer hold and bigger sample-year dispersion: +8.6% median over 213 days, 9 of 10 in the last decade (lone miss: 2018, the Q4 melt of −2.7%). NDX's best print is 2010 at +32%, and three other years cleared +20%. The longer hold catches not just the autumn rally but year-end and the January effect into late January.
Note on stacking. Long-only readers already have NDX and SPX exposure from the May 21 Late-May Launchpad. This is not a fresh directional bet — it's a calendar overlap. For a strict one-position-per-asset book, hold the existing position and skip the Jul 2 entry. For a multi-instance framework, both signals run independently with their own entry, exit, and sizing. The two windows differ: Late-May Launchpad exits Feb 18, 2027; the Jul 2 SPX exits Dec 1, 2026; the Jul 2 NDX exits Jan 31, 2027.
Trade vehicles: SPY or /ES for SPX; QQQ or /NQ for NDX. The 5- and 7-month durations are friendly to long-dated calls if you want defined risk. ATM Dec or Jan calls bought into the Thursday close work cleanly.
The two weeks ahead
| Day | Notes | Trades active |
|---|---|---|
| MonJun 22 | Week 26 opens. EIA storage report Thursday. | |
| ThuJun 25 | The 9-Month NG Short fires at the close, after the 10:30 AM EIA storage print. |
SHORTNG+22.5%
Exit Mar 25, 2027
|
| MonJun 29 | Week 27 opens. Quarter-end Tuesday Jun 30. | |
| TueJun 30 | Half-year-end. Window-dressing flows. | |
| WedJul 1 | ||
| ThuJul 2 | The Independence Day Launch fires at the close. Two equity longs enter on the same print. |
LONGSPX+4.6%
LONGNDX+8.6%
SPX → Dec 1 · NDX → Jan 31, 2027
|
| FriJul 3 | U.S. markets closed (Independence Day observed). |
June NFP releases Thursday Jul 2 at 8:30 AM ET (pulled forward from Friday because of the holiday). Position into the close, not before — the entry rests on the 4 PM print.
Full history — 25 years, both legs
SPX Jul 2 → Dec 1 (5 months) and NDX Jul 2 → Jan 31 (7 months). The gold rule separates the last decade from the prior decade-and-a-half.
| Year | SPX Long | NDX Long |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | −7.9% | −15.2% |
| 2002 | −1.2% | +2.0% |
| 2003 | +7.7% | +19.9% |
| 2004 | +4.0% | +0.7% |
| 2005 | +5.9% | +14.8% |
| 2006 | +10.0% | +13.8% |
| 2007 | −2.5% | −5.8% |
| 2008 | −30.2% | −36.6% |
| 2009 | +23.7% | +20.4% |
| 2010 | +17.9% | +32.0% |
| 2011 | −7.1% | +4.5% |
| 2012 | +4.0% | +4.7% |
| 2013 | +11.9% | +20.2% |
| 2014 | +4.0% | +6.4% |
| 2015 | +1.2% | −3.5% |
| 2016 | +4.6% | +15.6% |
| 2017 | +9.0% | +23.1% |
| 2018 | +1.2% | −2.7% |
| 2019 | +5.6% | +15.3% |
| 2020 | +16.2% | +25.7% |
| 2021 | +3.7% | +1.4% |
| 2022 | +6.6% | +4.5% |
| 2023 | +3.2% | +12.9% |
| 2024 | +10.2% | +8.6% |
| 2025 | +9.4% | +12.9% |
Read. The gold line at 2016 separates the modern decade. Below the line: SPX 10/10, NDX 9/10 (sole miss: 2018). The five SPX losing years (2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2011) all preceded the QE-era regime in which the Jul 2 → Dec 1 pattern has been close to deterministic.